Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7960…9a65 weather 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate75%157W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$13
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$18
politics 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$5
sports 1% −$4
world 0% $0
other 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -2.6% -11.8% 88% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 208 -5.2% -14.2% 75% 3% -9.4%
≤90d 208 -5.2% -14.2% 75% 3% -9.4%
all 208 -5.2% -14.2% 75% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 3% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 1% -18.1%
15% -29.9% 1% -26.0%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses157 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage21d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $62 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $186 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $113 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $49 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $55 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $22 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $18 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 5¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $8 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $13 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $19 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 677 history records