Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7963…37f9 sports 404 markets active 18h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,973 (-47%) realized −$2,977 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%128W / 234L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day75.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$822
sports 9% −$40
other 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 -5.2% -14.3% 36% 34% -23.9%
≤30d 202 -6.2% -15.1% 35% 33% -28.0%
≤90d 362 -12.6% -21.0% 35% 32% -22.5%
all 362 -12.6% -21.0% 35% 32% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 32% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 29% -29.9%
15% -35.4% 26% -36.7%
20% -41.8% 23% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$2,977
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses128 / 234
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions39
Markets (closed)362 / 404
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day75.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 35¢ 48¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 69¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 60¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 26¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 27¢ 29¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 21¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 43¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Haiti leading at halftime? Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 47¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$1 +152%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$4 +165%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +238%
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$4 +152%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +317%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +307%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $0 +$1 +226%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Cerundolo/Nakashima vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Halle Open (Doubles): Etcheverry/Kecmanovic vs Schnaitter/Wallner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$6 +250%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$25 +982%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -97%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 +$11 +426%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +226%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 +79%
Spread: HJK Helsinki (-2.5) Jun 13 $0 +$1 +596%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $2 18h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $1 18h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 23¢ $3 18h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 22¢ $0 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 19h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 17¢ $2 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 22¢ $0 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 19h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 19h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 20h
ITF Blois: Yaroslava Bartashevich vs Sofya Lansere BUY Yaroslava Bartashevich 82¢ $4 30h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 31h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 40¢ $3 31h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY KT Wiz 60¢ $3 40h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ $2 40h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 55¢ $3 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $3 40h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $3 42h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 37¢ $3 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 42h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 42h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 42h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 42h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes $2 43h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 47h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 2d
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Kathinka von Deichmann 42¢ $3 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 29¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 29¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.94 · official $119.75 (match) · 3500 history records