Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x7964…f585 sports 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16,499 (-23%) realized −$16,471 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%105W / 97L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,099now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,251
7 days+$1,577
14 days+$3,074
30 days+$2,116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$164
world 27% −$12,081
other 17% −$1,136
politics 3% −$857
culture 1% −$859
economics 1% −$66
crypto 1% −$730
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +1.5% -8.1% 60% 58% +2.1%
≤30d 133 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 57% -2.2%
≤90d 133 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 57% -2.2%
all 202 -10.4% -19.0% 52% 49% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 49% -31.3%
10% -26.7% 47% -37.9%
15% -33.8% 42% -43.9%
20% -40.3% 29% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$309 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$2,099
Realized−$16,471
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses105 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions7
Markets (closed)202 / 209
History coverage620d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $661 $657 −$4 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $333 $330 −$3 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $333 $326 −$7 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $666 +$227 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$166 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $436 +$332 +76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $336 +$133 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $337 +$247 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $336 +$147 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $336 +$161 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $329 −$326 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $98 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,210 +$313 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $305 +$8 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $152 +$173 +114%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $155 +$118 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$19 -13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$197 +97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $314 +$84 +27%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$84 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $294 −$290 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $162 −$73 -45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $162 +$157 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $147 +$107 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$17 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$96 +48%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $844 +$172 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $164 +$101 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $304 +$203 +67%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$68 +67%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 +$213 +139%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $218 −$121 -56%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $151 +$60 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $217 +$74 +34%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $93 −$92 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $506 +$370 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $66 −$65 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $203 +$272 +134%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $303 −$300 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $152 −$93 -61%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $122 +$128 +105%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $128 −$126 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $112 −$110 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $336 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $337 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $666 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $336 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $337 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $329 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $336 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $336 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $436 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $193 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $218 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $666 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $144 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $231 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $313 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $313 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $392 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 43¢ $299 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $504 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $326 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $273 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $155 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $133 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,098.88 · official $2,098.88 (match) · 516 history records