Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7966…f81a crypto 949 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$4,375 (-8%) realized −$5,803 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%534W / 413L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$4
14 days+$41
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,847
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -8.5% -17.2% 54% 50% -9.9%
≤30d 240 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 38% -6.7%
≤90d 947 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 48% -19.4%
all 947 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 48% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 48% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 42% -27.1%
15% -27.5% 38% -34.1%
20% -34.6% 33% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$52 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$5,803
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses534 / 413
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)947 / 949
History coverage59d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 947 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Down 55¢ 57¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Down 59¢ 4¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET Jun 06 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET Jun 04 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$12 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $41 +$29 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7PM ET May 31 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 31 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $178 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $172 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $82 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $37 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $74 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.62 · official $61.81 · 2228 history records