Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7966…b251
weather · 747 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4,390 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,910 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$3,910
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses493 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)821 / 747
History coverage76d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 821 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,149
7 days−$3,144
14 days−$3,053
30 days−$3,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? No 83¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 9? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 12? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on February 5? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on April 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on Fe Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on Fe Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27? Jun 14 $1 −$52 -4580%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$5 -277%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Feb Jun 14 $1,804 −$1,804 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Jun 14 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 2 Jun 14 $66 +$84 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on February 2? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 26? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $79 −$79 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on Fe Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 23? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 12? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 23? Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 54% −$257
crypto 26% −$586
finance 8% +$211
world 7% +$66
other 4% +$13
tech 1% +$14
politics 0% +$3
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $32 30m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 22¢ $2 45m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 32¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 83¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 17¢ $5 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 32¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 32¢ $0 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 34¢ $3 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 88¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 74¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -55.3% -59.6% 24% 19% -58.9%
≤30d 366 -21.5% -29.0% 48% 34% -32.7%
≤90d 821 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 36% -19.9%
all 821 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 36% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 36% -19.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 25% -27.6%
15% -31.3% 15% -34.6%
20% -38.0% 9% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.13 · official $1.14 (match) · 3500 history records