Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:50:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7966…dca6 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$0 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$67
other 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.3% -39.6% 30% 30% -20.6%
≤30d 10 -33.3% -39.6% 30% 30% -20.6%
≤90d 10 -33.3% -39.6% 30% 30% -20.6%
all 10 -33.3% -39.6% 30% 30% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.6% 30% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -45.4% 30% -28.2%
15% -50.7% 30% -35.1%
20% -55.5% 30% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$32 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $155 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$19 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.03 · official $28.03 (match) · 32 history records