Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7968…f73e crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-15%) realized +$21 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$36
sports 37% −$10
crypto 23% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -67.4% -70.5% 0% 0% -63.1%
≤30d 5 -80.4% -82.3% 0% 0% -70.8%
≤90d 14 -54.3% -58.7% 29% 21% -47.4%
all 14 -54.3% -58.7% 29% 21% -47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.7% 21% -47.4%
10% -62.6% 7% -52.4%
15% -66.3% 0% -57.0%
20% -69.6% 0% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage84d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England to score first vs. Ghana? Yes 83¢ 68¢ $33 $27 −$6 (-18%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -66%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 18 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 31 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 31 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 31 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 83¢ $33 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $1 22d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings BUY Chennai Super Kings 84¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 83d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 84d
Will Spain win on 2026-03-30? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.06 · official $26.86 (match) · 31 history records