Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:10:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
79 0x796a…9b6a crypto 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,506 (-6%) realized −$1,506 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%45W / 30L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,882
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.1% -4.0% 75% 50% +3.6%
≤30d 4 +6.1% -4.0% 75% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 4 +6.1% -4.0% 75% 50% +3.6%
all 75 +20.1% +8.7% 60% 52% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 52% -16.2%
10% -1.7% 33% -24.2%
15% -11.2% 16% -31.6%
20% -19.9% 9% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$175 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,506
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses45 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage156d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $143 +$43 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 29 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 05 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 05 $128 −$89 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 05 $81 +$48 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 05 $218 −$137 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 05 $170 +$51 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 05 $150 −$90 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 05 $214 +$51 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 26 $134 +$44 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 26 $80 +$55 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 26 $119 +$25 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 26 $141 −$85 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 26 $75 −$74 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 26 $63 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 26 $1,274 −$508 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 26 $655 +$55 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 26 $545 +$102 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 26 $1,071 −$608 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 26 $803 +$282 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 26 $1,129 −$315 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 26 $340 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jan 26 $852 +$287 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 26 $722 +$141 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 26 $723 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 26 $1,021 −$288 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 26 $902 +$118 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 26 $800 +$112 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 26 $734 +$80 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 26 $619 +$125 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 26 $1,151 −$525 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 26 $200 +$70 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 26 $540 +$418 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 26 $614 +$68 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 26 $325 +$116 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 26 $1,125 +$99 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 26 $400 +$50 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 26 $346 +$94 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 26 $100 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 26 $189 +$94 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 25 $200 −$180 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 25 $200 +$62 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 25 $291 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 25 $200 −$136 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 25 $180 −$178 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 25 $289 +$39 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 25 $97 +$50 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 25 $108 −$10 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $39 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $39 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $128 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $129 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $81 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $21 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $8 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $53 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $218 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $113 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $109 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $170 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $60 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $150 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $264 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $214 143d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $178 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.38 · official $20.38 (match) · 342 history records