Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x796b…2603 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$106 (+2%) realized +$115 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$118
crypto 12% +$42
sports 4% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 40% -7.1%
≤30d 15 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 40% -7.1%
≤90d 15 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 40% -7.1%
all 15 -7.4% -16.2% 53% 40% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 40% -7.1%
10% -24.2% 33% -16.0%
15% -31.5% 27% -24.1%
20% -38.3% 27% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$25 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,141
Realized+$115
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1,150 $1,141 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,070 +$97 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $953 −$75 -8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 −$41 -68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $501 +$42 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $61 −$5 -9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $502 +$60 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$6 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$17 -85%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $285 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $882 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 59¢ $51 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $808 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $860 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $852 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $19 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY $26 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $543 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $55 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $61 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $61 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $561 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 31h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,141.02 · official $1,166.02 · 36 history records