Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:34:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x7971…8dd0 crypto 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-0%) realized −$17 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate52%121W / 111L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$910per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,516
7 days+$901
14 days+$947
30 days+$621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$3,347
other 31% −$2,666
crypto 10% −$60
finance 7% −$1,224
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -2.8% -12.1% 69% 16% -9.1%
≤30d 90 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 18% -9.2%
≤90d 122 -7.9% -16.7% 61% 20% -9.7%
all 232 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 25% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 25% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 20% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 15% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$61 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,131
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses121 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions4
Markets (closed)232 / 236
History coverage102d
Avg bet$910
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 93¢ 90¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Yes 93¢ 39¢ $100 $42 −$58 (-58%)
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Yes 70¢ 10¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $5,503 +$99 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$23 +23%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$15 -15%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$6 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 −$2 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $102 −$4 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,001 +$15 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,001 +$39 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 +$26 +26%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1,301 +$29 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $241 +$20 +8%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1 $0 -5%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $3 −$1 -29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,001 +$49 +0%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5,000 +$9 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $100 +$5 +5%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $4,101 +$46 +1%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -79%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10,297 +$104 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $300 −$2 -1%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $301 +$25 +8%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,459 +$170 +7%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $11,104 +$118 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,504 +$127 +3%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10,000 +$10 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,001 +$19 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10,008 +$272 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1,001 −$105 -10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $200 +$12 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$162 -80%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$3 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10,006 +$204 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $63 +$4 +6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,502 +$65 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5,004 +$123 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5,005 +$168 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5,002 37m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $501 43m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 1h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $100 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 99¢ $1,000 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $101 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $87 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $106 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $95 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $97 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $97 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $101 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $98 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,015 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,041 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1,001 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $2,001 4h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 48¢ $1 6h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $1 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $200 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 89¢ $55 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $1,000 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $40 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $301 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $72 14h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $72 14h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $72 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,130.63 · official $1,130.63 (match) · 586 history records