Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7973…fa8d sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-7%) realized −$82 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$67
other 11% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -34.9% -41.1% 27% 27% -25.3%
≤30d 41 -34.9% -41.1% 27% 27% -25.3%
≤90d 41 -34.9% -41.1% 27% 27% -25.3%
all 41 -34.9% -41.1% 27% 27% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.1% 27% -25.3%
10% -46.7% 24% -32.5%
15% -51.9% 17% -39.0%
20% -56.6% 15% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$82
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions8
Markets (closed)41 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 28¢ 28¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$19 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$30 -61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $84 +$28 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $54 −$9 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$24 -48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $68 −$67 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $98 −$27 -28%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$16 -64%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $29 +$21 +75%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $162 −$5 -3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $19 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$28 +91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $52 −$24 -47%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$5 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $45 +$9 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$13 +132%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$22 -70%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 +$21 +34%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 28¢ $8 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 50¢ $59 8m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $10 36m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $31 39m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 18¢ $19 46m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 39¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 29¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $38 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 4¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 96¢ $71 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $45 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $45 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 43¢ $23 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $23 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 22¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 56¢ $44 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $34 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $44 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $38 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 3¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 82¢ $39 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 54¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 25¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 28¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.73 · official $21.73 · 120 history records