Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7976…f3dc world 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$406 (-6%) realized −$403 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate29%18W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$116
30 days−$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$169
other 17% −$190
tech 7% −$12
politics 6% −$12
finance 4% +$15
sports 3% −$5
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.9% -33.0% 25% 25% -24.9%
≤30d 51 -19.8% -27.4% 27% 8% -18.0%
≤90d 63 -11.5% -20.0% 29% 10% -15.0%
all 63 -11.5% -20.0% 29% 10% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 10% -15.0%
10% -27.6% 6% -23.1%
15% -34.6% 5% -30.6%
20% -41.0% 5% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$403
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 45
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage37d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 89¢ $174 $178 +$4 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $64 $57 −$7 (-11%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 68¢ 69¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 26 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 25 $39 +$11 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 22 $34 −$6 -17%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $189 −$50 -27%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $87 +$4 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $243 +$6 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $812 −$102 -12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $58 +$6 +11%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$31 +107%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $261 +$10 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $123 +$10 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $268 +$5 +2%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $110 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$32 +172%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $35 −$20 -57%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $75 −$4 -6%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 11 $38 −$7 -19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $34 −$5 -15%
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? Jun 09 $17 −$16 -89%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $40 $0 -1%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $28 −$11 -38%
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $73 −$49 -68%
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $60 −$27 -44%
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular Jun 08 $53 −$14 -27%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 08 $64 −$11 -18%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 08 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jun 08 $48 −$9 -19%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 08 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 08 $51 −$4 -8%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 07 $24 −$14 -58%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $71 −$8 -11%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 06 $57 −$17 -30%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Jun 05 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by November 30, 2026? Jun 05 $13 −$8 -60%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -1%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 04 $44 −$8 -19%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 03 $22 −$10 -47%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $10 −$2 -23%
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $250M? Jun 03 $19 −$16 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $76 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY No 68¢ $22 2h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 2d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 2d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $9 2d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $3 2d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 5d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 27¢ $13 6d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 32¢ $16 6d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL No 32¢ $16 6d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 37¢ $18 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY No 78¢ $39 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.04 · official $293.89 (match) · 466 history records