Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7977…6540 sports 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-17%) realized −$35 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%65W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$24
other 15% −$9
world 9% −$7
crypto 8% −$8
tech 2% +$1
finance 2% −$3
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 53% +7.6%
≤30d 99 -7.6% -16.4% 54% 49% -15.4%
≤90d 126 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 48% -27.2%
all 126 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 48% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 48% -27.2%
10% -26.9% 39% -34.2%
15% -34.0% 32% -40.5%
20% -40.4% 25% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses65 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions11
Markets (closed)126 / 138
History coverage83d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 61¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 28¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1 +$1 +70%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $4 −$3 -73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $6 −$2 -25%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$7 +97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $2 +$2 +109%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 May 27 $1 −$1 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $3 +$1 +42%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Braden Shick May 27 $1 $0 +26%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $2 +$2 +102%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 25 $1 +$1 +124%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $1 $0 +12%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $2 +$1 +26%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +119%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1 +$1 +101%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Panna Udvardy vs Anhelina Kalinina May 22 $2 $0 +10%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Luka Pavlovic May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $1 +$1 +109%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 22 $1 +$1 +50%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $1 +$1 +73%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 26m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 54m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 54m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $1 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 64¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $2 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? BUY No 66¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $2 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Phoenix Mercury $1 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 83¢ $1 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 84¢ $1 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Phoenix Mercury 16¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 11¢ $1 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 96¢ $4 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $1 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 77¢ $1 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 51¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.92 · official $7.92 (match) · 290 history records