Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7978…562b other 17 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 17 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 17 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.3%
all 17 -0.9% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $81 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $82 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $82 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $82 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $82 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $82 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $83 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $83 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $83 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $83 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $83 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 91¢ $74 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY No 91¢ $74 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY No 89¢ $72 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? BUY No 96¢ $78 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY No 84¢ $69 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY No 93¢ $76 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? BUY No 99¢ $80 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY No 93¢ $76 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY No 91¢ $74 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY No 98¢ $79 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? BUY No 98¢ $79 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY No 94¢ $76 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY No 96¢ $78 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? BUY No 98¢ $80 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? BUY No 98¢ $79 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records