Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x797c…1c9c world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$25
other 18% −$12
crypto 8% +$8
sports 7% +$9
politics 4% +$3
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$2
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.8% -22.0% 25% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 23 -2.1% -11.5% 43% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 27 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 0% -10.2%
all 74 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 5% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage527d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $28 −$16 -57%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $339 −$11 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $87 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $359 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $151 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $99 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $110 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $208 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $290 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $102 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $40 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $67 +$4 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $16 $0 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $114 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $99 +$2 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 19 $104 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $108 −$3 -3%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $118 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 06 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $60 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 23 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 16 $83 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 15 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 13 $27 $0 -1%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $9 −$1 -17%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $94 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $77 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $94 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $12 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $58 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $100 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $100 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $87 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $87 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $48 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $110 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $110 9d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $96 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $46 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $60 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.80 · official $93.31 (match) · 316 history records