Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x797e…ff82 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% −$2
sports 14% +$23
other 14% −$18
crypto 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.5% +25.3% 100% 67% +29.3%
≤30d 3 +38.5% +25.3% 100% 67% +29.3%
≤90d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 22% -7.1%
all 34 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 6% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage350d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur Jun 23 $20 +$7 +36%
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Italy Jun 23 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 10? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 6? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 December 15-21? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 21? Dec 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Nov 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 22-28? Nov 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $292 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $4700 on September 10? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $280 September 8–14? Sep 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $273 $0 +0%
Will Marco Enríquez-Ominami win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 10 $285 $0 -0%
Will Trygve Slagsvold Vedum become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Sep 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1? Sep 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $280 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $280 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $302 $0 -0%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 08 $142 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $41 1h
World Championships: Slovenia vs. Italy BUY Slovenia 55¢ $20 28d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 61¢ $17 33d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $34 36d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur BUY fnatic 73¢ $20 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 76d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $32 76d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 76d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $32 76d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 89d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 89d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 101d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 101d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 110d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 110d
Will XRP reach $2.60 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $2 185d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $55 185d
Will XRP reach $2.60 December 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $9 185d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $55 185d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $6 215d
Will the price of Solana be above $180 on November 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 215d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 224d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 224d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $12 269d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $267 277d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $117 277d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $150 277d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 285d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.14 · official $40.14 (match) · 87 history records