Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
79 0x797f…aa36 world 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,226 (+6%) realized +$4,778 · open −$2,552
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%72W / 82L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$338
7 days−$1,271
14 days−$2,249
30 days+$1,082
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$546
politics 12% +$621
other 7% +$1,320
sports 4% −$410
economics 3% −$228
weather 1% −$149
crypto 1% +$281
culture 0% +$31
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.4% -18.0% 38% 38% -31.2%
≤30d 56 -8.9% -17.5% 43% 39% -4.4%
≤90d 154 +15.0% +4.1% 47% 38% +1.6%
all 154 +15.0% +4.1% 47% 38% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.1% 38% +1.6%
10% -5.9% 36% -8.2%
15% -15.0% 27% -17.0%
20% -23.3% 22% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$88 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2,392
Realized+$4,778
Unrealized−$2,552
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses72 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions5
Markets (closed)154 / 159
History coverage62d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 39¢ 38¢ $983 $953 −$30 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 18¢ $2,700 $937 −$1,763 (-65%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 54¢ 16¢ $997 $302 −$694 (-70%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 58¢ 60¢ $164 $169 +$5 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $100 $30 −$70 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $500 +$110 +22%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $150 −$66 -44%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $576 +$392 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $130 −$86 -66%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$50 +25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $1,400 −$51 -4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $100 +$323 +323%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $202 +$105 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $600 −$600 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $550 −$550 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $464 −$398 -86%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $67 −$67 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $350 −$25 -7%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 07 $500 −$488 -98%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 04 $215 −$135 -63%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $470 +$1,329 +283%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $200 −$33 -16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $226 −$66 -29%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 03 $101 −$101 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $205 +$301 +147%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 31 $21 −$19 -91%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 30 $670 +$62 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $797 +$290 +36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $1,408 +$606 +43%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $244 +$60 +25%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 30 $110 +$41 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $571 +$290 +51%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $660 −$440 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $378 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $300 −$71 -24%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $500 +$122 +24%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2? May 29 $51 −$51 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 28 $400 +$1 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $217 −$63 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $100 −$82 -82%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $909 +$498 +55%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $175 +$185 +106%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $252 +$405 +161%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $468 +$430 +92%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $516 −$18 -4%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 23 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $122 −$117 -97%
Will Warsh say "Independence" or "Independent" during swearing-in? May 22 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $450 +$139 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $817 +$234 +29%
Will Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May? May 21 $207 −$200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $164 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $165 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $511 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 18¢ $510 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 20¢ $100 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $472 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 15¢ $500 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $291 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $681 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $684 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $15 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $106 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $88 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $100 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $100 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $100 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $200 29h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 76¢ $968 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $88 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $263 30h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 34h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 21¢ $84 34h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $1 34h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $100 35h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 44¢ $1 36h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 44¢ $1 36h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 44¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,391.53 · official $2,398.89 (match) · 793 history records