Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
79 0x7985…0129 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$19 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$5
sports 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -51.4% -56.1% 33% 33% -8.8%
≤30d 3 -51.4% -56.1% 33% 33% -8.8%
≤90d 3 -51.4% -56.1% 33% 33% -8.8%
all 3 -51.4% -56.1% 33% 33% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.1% 33% -8.8%
10% -60.3% 33% -17.6%
15% -64.1% 33% -25.5%
20% -67.6% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$455 vs −$222 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $200 −$196 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals Jun 23 $254 −$247 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $996 +$455 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $200 26h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $254 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $996 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.98 · official $491.98 (match) · 8 history records