Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x7987…884a sports 306 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$673 (+2%) realized +$670 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%141W / 164L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$398est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,785
14 days−$3,328
30 days−$2,337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$3,421
world 23% −$2,782
crypto 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 0% -47.6%
≤30d 71 +22.0% +10.4% 51% 49% -24.4%
≤90d 305 +5.0% -5.0% 46% 46% -7.8%
all 305 +5.0% -5.0% 46% 46% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 46% -7.8%
10% -14.1% 45% -16.6%
15% -22.4% 45% -24.7%
20% -30.0% 44% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$81 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$670
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses141 / 164
Est. fees paid−$398
Open positions1
Markets (closed)305 / 306
History coverage76d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $6,462 −$2,794 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $161 +$9 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$156 +1521%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $102 +$98 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 10 $157 −$155 -99%
1H Spread: Knicks (-0.5) Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $304 −$300 -99%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $66 +$73 +111%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 08 $153 −$150 -98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $51 +$39 +76%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $102 +$101 +99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $203 +$189 +93%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 04 $203 −$200 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $254 +$218 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5 May 31 $102 +$107 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $203 +$205 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 29 $203 −$10 -5%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $101 +$95 +93%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $201 +$28 +14%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $302 +$112 +37%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $303 +$124 +41%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 27 $101 +$79 +78%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5 May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $107 +$103 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 26 $61 −$61 -100%
1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 113.5 May 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 26 $76 −$76 -100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5 May 26 $112 −$112 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 May 26 $102 −$102 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 May 26 $127 −$127 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 May 26 $193 −$193 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 May 26 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $254 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $108 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $223 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $23 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $60 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $249 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $84 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $136 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $155 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.79 · official $103.03 (match) · 772 history records