Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:29:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x798a…01a4 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$4
world 39% +$1
other 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 0% -9.2%
all 6 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -9.2%
10% -23.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -30.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage83d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $72 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $133 +$1 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $111 +$2 +2%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 12 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 09 $240 +$3 +1%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $4 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $81 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $38 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 8h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $221 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $124 32d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $127 32d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $53 32d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $197 32d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $222 33d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 33d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $63 74d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $44 74d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $27 74d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $104 77d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $7 77d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $48 77d
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? SELL No 92¢ $63 77d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $27 78d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $26 78d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $33 78d
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY No 93¢ $64 80d
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League final? SELL No 98¢ $243 80d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 80d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 82d
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY No 96¢ $240 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.48 · official $242.16 (match) · 30 history records