Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x798c…7ff6 politics 200 markets active 2h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,288 (-2%) realized −$1,288 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%31W / 169L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 60% −$42
other 13% −$44
crypto 7% −$996
politics 7% −$17
world 6% −$9
finance 5% −$159
tech 1% −$25
sports 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -1.6% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 23 -3.8% -13.0% 4% 0% -12.1%
all 200 -3.4% -12.6% 16% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -11.4%
10% -21.0% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.6% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses31 / 169
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage368d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 19 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $349 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 16 $350 −$1 -0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $130 −$15 -11%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $350 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $111 −$2 -2%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 14 $31 −$5 -16%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 14 $147 −$6 -4%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 14? Apr 14 $68 −$17 -25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 11 $106 $0 +0%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 10 $110 $0 +0%
QQQ (QQQ) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $38 −$1 -2%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $7 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $445 −$106 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $1,300 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 28 $1,372 −$34 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 19 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 19 $591 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Mar 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Shopify (SHOP) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $91 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $91 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 26 $91 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jan 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 15 $95 −$3 -4%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jan 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 31? Jan 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $350 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $351 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $299 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $300 1h
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $349 2d
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $349 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $352 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $352 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $340 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $340 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $350 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $350 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? SELL Up 58¢ $90 21d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? SELL Up 59¢ $1 21d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? SELL Up 60¢ $4 21d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? SELL Up 61¢ $8 21d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? SELL Up 61¢ $12 21d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 65¢ $130 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $350 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $350 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 35d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 35d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 74¢ $109 45d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 74¢ $111 45d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 14? SELL Down 36¢ $18 65d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Down 46¢ $2 65d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Down 46¢ $21 65d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 14? SELL Down 39¢ $1 66d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 14? SELL Down 47¢ $141 66d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 14? BUY Down 49¢ $65 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 658 history records