Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x798e…4fd7 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate51%19W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$1
world 28% −$1
politics 20% −$21
crypto 9% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 3% +$9
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 0% -10.0%
all 37 -2.7% -12.0% 51% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -11.0%
10% -20.4% 3% -19.5%
15% -28.1% 3% -27.3%
20% -35.1% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses19 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage490d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $62 −$1 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $66 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $34 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec Jun 01 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 24 $3 −$2 -79%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 24 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will Portugal finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 9–16? May 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? May 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? May 09 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump say 'DEI' or 'diversity, equity, and inclusion' during the Mar 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Central Connecticut vs. Chicago State Mar 05 $9 +$9 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $28 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $25 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $22 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $10 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $16 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $3 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $14 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $33 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $6 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $27 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $17 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $17 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $16 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $17 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $5 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $29 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records