Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7991…24ad other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$825 (-18%) realized −$748 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%13W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$468
14 days−$544
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$533
crypto 26% −$231
sports 5% −$73
world 1% +$13
economics 1% −$8
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -86.7% -88.0% 7% 3% -20.5%
≤30d 63 -85.8% -87.1% 8% 3% -21.9%
≤90d 65 -84.0% -85.5% 9% 5% -22.2%
all 86 -58.4% -62.3% 15% 9% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.3% 9% -24.8%
10% -65.9% 8% -32.0%
15% -69.2% 8% -38.6%
20% -72.3% 7% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$748
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses13 / 73
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions37
Markets (closed)86 / 123
History coverage171d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $60 $26 −$34 (-57%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,521 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $893 +$4 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $920 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$7 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 20? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$10 -31%
Will Club León FC win on 2026-03-18? Jun 16 $17 −$15 -90%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 20? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Warriors Jun 16 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 6 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $750 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $747 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $771 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.37 · official $83.38 (match) · 252 history records