Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x7995…bab7 other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% $0
politics 23% −$6
economics 8% −$2
sports 7% −$41
tech 3% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -5.1% -14.1% 10% 6% -9.7%
all 103 -4.9% -14.0% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 6% -9.7%
10% -22.2% 6% -18.3%
15% -29.7% 5% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage94d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $296 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 20 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $431 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $221 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $213 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $477 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $442 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $413 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $426 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $220 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $449 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $453 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $464 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $448 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $471 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $447 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $245 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $444 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $666 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $35 20h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 22h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $35 23h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 45h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $139 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 24d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 25d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $32 25d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $32 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 30d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 30d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $47 31d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $47 31d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $102 32d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 32d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 32d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $234 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.03 · official $222.03 (match) · 305 history records