Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7999…1d86
other · 716 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$743 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,896 · open −$129
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,792
Realized−$3,896
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses476 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions27
Markets (closed)738 / 716
History coverage106d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 27 History 738 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,081
7 days−$1,439
14 days−$1,353
30 days−$1,275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 80¢ $629 $567 −$62 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 56¢ $70 $57 −$13 (-18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 56¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 42¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 58¢ 32¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-18%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 15¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 42¢ 33¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 44¢ 67¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+52%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 60¢ 81¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Japan recession in 2026? Yes 45¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Celo win 2025 Uniswap Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
India x Pakistan military clash by November 30? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? Jun 14 $33 −$46 -140%
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Panick in the White House Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will India strike Pakistan by Dec 31? Jun 14 $11 −$4 -37%
Will Trump’s approval rating be <40.0% on December 31? Jun 14 $25 −$36 -146%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 14 $25 −$42 -167%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Jun 14 $12 +$18 +143%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +261%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31? Jun 14 $8 −$22 -261%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 20% in 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 40.0–41.9% on December 31? Jun 14 $13 −$18 -141%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by >14%? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$13 -63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 87% −$2,715
sports 5% −$788
politics 4% −$282
world 3% +$593
crypto 1% −$1
weather 0% −$8
finance 0% +$71
tech 0% −$3
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 94¢ $24 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 21¢ $7 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 75¢ $32 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 65¢ $33 7m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $506 43m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $200 43m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $300 43m
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $300 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY Festina Lente 5¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner SELL Detonate 20¢ $0 11h
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Detonate 38¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 2 Winner SELL Marsborne 95¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 2 Winner BUY Marsborne 75¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 12h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $410 12h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $304 12h
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner SELL Detonate 99¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner BUY Detonate 49¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 1 Winner SELL Festina Lente 99¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente - Map 1 Winner BUY Festina Lente 35¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -11.0% -19.4% 51% 24% -17.0%
≤30d 384 -7.9% -16.6% 59% 27% -12.3%
≤90d 633 -7.0% -15.8% 63% 24% -14.5%
all 738 -5.3% -14.4% 64% 25% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 25% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 17% -19.5%
15% -30.0% 11% -27.3%
20% -36.9% 8% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,792.08 · official $2,792.23 (match) · 3500 history records