Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:04:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x799a…6fde world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%35W / 53L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$6
other 24% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 14% +$4
crypto 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 26 +73.5% +56.9% 38% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 61 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 2% -9.3%
all 88 +24.8% +12.9% 40% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.9% 2% -9.2%
10% +2.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -7.7% 2% -25.8%
20% -16.8% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses35 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage471d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 89¢ 85¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $43 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $51 +$2 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -23%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $4 $0 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $124 +$4 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $15 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $97 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $34 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1 −$1 -60%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 −$2 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $5 $0 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $13 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $145 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 10 $68 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 94¢ $43 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $22 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $43 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $43 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.27 · official $3.98 · 351 history records