Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x799b…fdfa other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$10
politics 32% −$9
sports 16% −$33
crypto 5% −$13
tech 5% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -3.8% -13.0% 11% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage126d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $207 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 27 $190 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $200 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $208 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $349 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $210 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $214 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $390 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $198 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $217 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $186 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $382 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $194 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $157 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $196 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 11 $195 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $406 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $190 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $409 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $192 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 7h
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 12h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 12h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 26h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 21d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 24d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $190 24d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $190 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $168 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $168 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $210 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $214 28d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $214 28d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $203 29d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $203 30d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $198 30d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $198 31d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 31d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $217 31d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 31d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 32d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $190 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 346 history records