Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x79a0…65d1 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-69%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$45
other 27% +$60
world 12% −$10
economics 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +255.6% +221.7% 100% 100% +221.7%
≤30d 1 +255.6% +221.7% 100% 100% +221.7%
≤90d 2 +77.8% +60.9% 50% 50% +10.0%
all 4 -11.1% -19.6% 25% 25% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -8.7%
10% -27.3% 25% -17.5%
15% -34.3% 25% -25.4%
20% -40.7% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$20 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage104d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $23 +$60 +256%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $48 −$45 -94%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 3h
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 7¢ $48 36d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY No 0¢ $10 95d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $4 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records