Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79a1…8f88 crypto 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$496 (-15%) realized −$441 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%16W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$149
14 days−$156
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$674
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 11 -97.3% -97.5% 0% 0% -99.5%
≤90d 84 -44.4% -49.7% 19% 19% -28.1%
all 84 -44.4% -49.7% 19% 19% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 19% -28.1%
10% -54.5% 19% -35.0%
15% -58.9% 19% -41.3%
20% -63.0% 18% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$30 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$441
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses16 / 68
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage88d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $146 $91 −$55 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Jun 28 $108 −$102 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 06 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $199 −$189 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $24 −$22 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 18? May 19 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 18? May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 17? May 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $38 −$23 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 17 $42 −$39 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $99 −$61 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3PM ET May 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1PM ET May 16 $105 +$265 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 16 $105 +$80 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12PM ET May 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $223 +$381 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET May 16 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 16 $104 +$120 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 15 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5PM ET May 15 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $26 +$21 +82%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $11 +$58 +544%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $8 −$8 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET May 15 $21 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 15 $0 $0 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $30 −$20 -68%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $99 −$92 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $100 −$75 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 10¢ $102 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 8¢ $108 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 25¢ $67 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 22¢ $103 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $24 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $144 41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 17? BUY No 0¢ $11 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 17? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 17? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? BUY No 11¢ $7 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? BUY No 2¢ $42 42d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $38 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? SELL No 18¢ $36 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.96 · official $90.96 (match) · 181 history records