Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x79a3…87a8 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$2
other 19% +$1
politics 12% +$1
crypto 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +1.4% -8.3% 42% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 12 +1.4% -8.3% 42% 8% -8.9%
all 33 +0.5% -9.1% 48% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage471d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $68 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $17 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $92 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $49 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 27 $14 $0 -1%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 04 $15 $0 -1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $1 $0 -11%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on March 21? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $7 $0 -6%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $14 $0 +1%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $52 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $52 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $17 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $34 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $49 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records