Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79a5…91b3 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$12 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$15
other 33% −$8
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.6% -35.4% 67% 33% -37.9%
≤30d 3 -28.6% -35.4% 67% 33% -37.9%
≤90d 3 -28.6% -35.4% 67% 33% -37.9%
all 3 -28.6% -35.4% 67% 33% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 33% -37.9%
10% -41.6% 0% -43.8%
15% -47.3% 0% -49.2%
20% -52.4% 0% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 88¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $60 1h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $15 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $5 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.83 · official $65.84 (match) · 9 history records