Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
79 0x79a6…36b5 politics 127 markets active 2d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 118L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$5
politics 40% −$6
sports 6% +$47
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 119 +0.1% -9.4% 5% 3% -9.4%
all 126 +0.6% -9.0% 6% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×22.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 118
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage110d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $80 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $141 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $69 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $72 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $242 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $66 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $80 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $88 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $162 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $329 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $92 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $78 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $161 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $8 5d
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $8 10d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $8 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $12 17d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 17d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 17d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 18d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $63 26d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $63 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 27d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 27d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $85 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.99 · official $13.99 (match) · 350 history records