Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79a8…06d1 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+5%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.0% -22.2% 55% 35% -9.4%
≤30d 40 -14.0% -22.2% 55% 35% -9.4%
≤90d 40 -14.0% -22.2% 55% 35% -9.4%
all 40 -14.0% -22.2% 55% 35% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 35% -9.4%
10% -29.6% 28% -18.1%
15% -36.4% 15% -26.0%
20% -42.6% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records