Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79ab…c746 crypto 538 markets active 1h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$729 (-2%) realized −$729 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate73%393W / 143L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$329
7 days−$614
14 days−$500
30 days−$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$322
other 20% −$360
sports 3% −$118
culture 0% −$17
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$4
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -7.0% -15.8% 67% 43% -19.4%
≤30d 68 +6.0% -4.1% 66% 53% -15.3%
≤90d 75 -0.6% -10.0% 63% 51% -16.6%
all 536 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 44% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 44% -11.5%
10% -17.3% 31% -19.9%
15% -25.3% 21% -27.7%
20% -32.6% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$729
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses393 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)536 / 538
History coverage533d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$4 +4%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $221 −$160 -73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $503 −$247 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $451 +$54 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $400 +$12 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $381 +$65 +17%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $220 +$160 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $423 −$206 -49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $400 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $545 −$415 -76%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $151 −$146 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $501 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +28%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $403 +$117 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +115%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $322 +$74 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $211 +$48 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +33%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $212 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$4 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $213 +$30 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $105 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $61 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $221 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 40¢ $257 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $451 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $400 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $381 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $380 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 44¢ $217 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $423 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $400 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $151 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $120 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $535 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.29 · official $2.29 (match) · 1257 history records