Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x79ac…9c87 sports 637 markets active 0h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$950 (+1%) realized +$887 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%323W / 309L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$423est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$307
7 days+$372
14 days−$60
30 days+$652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$358
world 15% +$1,574
politics 1% −$243
other 1% +$302
crypto 1% −$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +5.5% -4.5% 50% 47% +5.7%
≤30d 95 +7.9% -2.4% 49% 48% -3.1%
≤90d 218 +1.5% -8.2% 49% 45% -5.9%
all 632 +15.5% +4.5% 51% 44% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 44% -8.5%
10% -5.5% 38% -17.2%
15% -14.6% 32% -25.2%
20% -23.0% 26% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$91 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$887
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses323 / 309
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$423
Open positions5
Markets (closed)632 / 637
History coverage184d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 28¢ 42¢ $100 $154 +$53 (+53%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 29¢ 40¢ $43 $59 +$16 (+36%)
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 70¢ 50¢ $16 $12 −$5 (-28%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SPARTA 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $151 +$88 +58%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $169 +$142 +84%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $73 +$88 +119%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $16 +$119 +733%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $334 +$78 +23%
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $54 −$2 -3%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $178 −$178 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $97 +$61 +62%
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Chiefs Esports Club vs Shaiikademy (BO1) - Asia Pac Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $32 −$4 -12%
Dublin: Mark Lajal vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 16 $155 −$7 -5%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 16 $23 +$7 +28%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$66 +176%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $79 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $31 +$7 +24%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$4 -26%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $174 +$151 +87%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - South America League S Jun 13 $143 +$10 +7%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South America Lea Jun 13 $108 +$55 +51%
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South A Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $80 −$79 -98%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $59 −$47 -79%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $52 +$22 +41%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $10 +$5 +57%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 07 $146 −$144 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $12 +$5 +41%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 05 $8 +$2 +22%
ITF Focsani: Simona Ogescu vs Thea Marcu Jun 05 $293 +$83 +28%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $331 −$326 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $106 −$104 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $97 +$74 +77%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $450 +$277 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 4m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 35¢ $25 8m
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 26¢ $77 10m
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 70¢ $16 15m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 1¢ $0 15m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 1¢ $1 15m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 1¢ $0 15m
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 25¢ $3 18m
Mannarino vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 48¢ $11 21m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $143 24m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 66¢ $36 29m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 70¢ $21 32m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 70¢ $18 32m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 46¢ $27 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 36¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 36¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 35¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 37¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 100¢ $283 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 55¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 55¢ $63 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 36¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 42¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 39¢ $43 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $27 5h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $6 5h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $33 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $9 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.21 · official $236.21 (match) · 3217 history records