Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79ae…7938 sports 836 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%751W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.6% -28.2% 73% 7% -28.1%
≤30d 177 -3.4% -12.6% 89% 2% -12.6%
≤90d 572 -2.4% -11.7% 90% 2% -11.0%
all 833 -1.9% -11.3% 90% 2% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -10.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses751 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)833 / 836
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 833 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs the bug 92¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day (BO3) - The Internati Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Yellow Submarine (BO1) - The International Euro Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 05 $1 $0 +5%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southea Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southe Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 04 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Execration vs Direborn (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asi Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: D family vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asi Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 03 $1 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Red Hot Chili Pibble vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Esports World Cup Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 03 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Eu Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $1 $0 +8%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team G (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europ Jun 01 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close BUY Vici Gaming 92¢ $1 45m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 95¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 92¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 89¢ $1 5h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 92¢ $1 19h
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY summer bear 91¢ $1 37h
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr BUY Power Rangers 91¢ $1 44h
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South BUY Estar Backs 92¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open BUY Level UP 93¢ $1 2d
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day (BO3) - The Internati BUY InterActive Philippines 92¢ $1 3d
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ BUY the bug 92¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Yellow Submarine (BO1) - The International Euro BUY Rune Eaters 94¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op BUY L1ga Team 93¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Yellow Submarine 94¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 92¢ $1 5d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Zero Tenacity 92¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Zero Tenacity 92¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 92¢ $1 6d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 91¢ $1 7d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 92¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 91¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Hive vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Zero Tenacity 92¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 93¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Zero Tenacity 94¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 91¢ $1 9d
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Zero Tenacity 95¢ $1 9d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos BUY REKONIX 92¢ $1 9d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 92¢ $1 9d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 94¢ $1 10d
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 91¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.22 · official $4.22 (match) · 1661 history records