Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79b0…8fb7 crypto 85 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (171 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$331 (-17%) realized −$331 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%29W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day170.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (171 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -18.2% -26.0% 42% 42% -23.4%
≤30d 85 -18.9% -26.7% 34% 34% -27.8%
≤90d 85 -18.9% -26.7% 34% 34% -27.8%
all 85 -18.9% -26.7% 34% 34% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover170.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 34% -27.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 28% -34.7%
15% -40.1% 21% -41.0%
20% -46.0% 20% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$331
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses29 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day170.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $80 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$16 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$21 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6AM ET Jun 11 $38 +$85 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$96 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$29 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$88 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$18 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$52 +174%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1010 history records