Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79b4…c2a7 politics 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$4
sports 25% −$1
other 16% −$1
economics 4% −$3
world 4% $0
culture 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -9.1% -17.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 57 -7.6% -16.4% 5% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -24.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage240d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $77 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $77 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $79 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $76 $0 -0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $78 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $79 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $160 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $83 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $83 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 03 $86 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 26 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 26 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $82 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $83 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $76 36h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $76 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $74 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $74 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $75 26d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 108d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 108d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 115d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $77 117d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 126d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 128d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 134d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 144d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 145d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 145d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $77 147d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $77 148d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $77 149d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $77 149d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 1¢ $2 150d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $78 150d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $79 151d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $76 152d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $76 153d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $78 153d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $78 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.29 · official $74.29 (match) · 223 history records