Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79b4…90f9 world 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%32W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$20
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$12
other 25% $0
sports 15% +$2
politics 14% +$1
economics 2% $0
finance 2% +$4
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 31 -2.6% -11.9% 35% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 77 +20.2% +8.7% 31% 4% -9.5%
all 104 +14.8% +3.9% 31% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 4% -9.5%
10% -6.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -15.1% 1% -26.1%
20% -23.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses32 / 72
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage280d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $166 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $162 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $153 −$1 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $171 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $4 $0 -11%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $249 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $152 +$1 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $165 +$2 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $167 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $152 −$2 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $245 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $152 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $54 +$18 +33%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $134 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $503 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $115 −$3 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $121 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $297 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $179 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $454 −$4 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $296 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $437 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $562 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $280 −$3 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $291 +$4 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $105 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $4 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $114 +$3 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $137 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $37 +$5 +15%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $142 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $167 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $138 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $138 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $138 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $921 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $152 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $138 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $138 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $4 −$2 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $166 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $166 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $162 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $162 9h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $152 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $153 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $152 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $152 32h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $116 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $116 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $116 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $85 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $67 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $167 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $165 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $150 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $150 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $165 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $165 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $81 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $0.00 · 411 history records