Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
79 0x79b6…2026 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 681d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$6,499 (+33%) realized +$4,225 · open +$2,274
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate67%30W / 15L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$6,419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$1,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$5,484
crypto 21% −$551
world 11% +$957
politics 4% +$120
sports 1% +$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 0% -1.0%
≤30d 3 +35.2% +22.4% 100% 67% +17.4%
≤90d 10 +16.5% +5.4% 70% 60% +25.0%
all 45 +23.3% +11.6% 67% 51% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 51% +13.1%
10% +0.9% 44% +2.3%
15% -8.8% 38% -7.6%
20% -17.8% 33% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$142 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.11 per $1 lost it wins $3.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

681d coverage
Net worth$6,419
Realized+$4,225
Unrealized+$2,274
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses30 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage681d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ 54¢ $3,990 $6,175 +$2,185 (+55%)
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $16B? No 50¢ 78¢ $155 $244 +$88 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $514 +$48 +9%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 03 $783 +$585 +75%
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 02 $3,000 +$648 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $2,214 +$957 +43%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $200 +$243 +122%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $200 +$165 +82%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $200 +$224 +112%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Apr 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Mar 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Cubs vs. Phillies Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $100 +$206 +206%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $100 +$488 +488%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 26 $1,880 +$1,280 +68%
Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025? Nov 17 $579 +$37 +6%
Angels vs. Red Sox Aug 14 $9 +$11 +133%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 18? Aug 14 $25 +$36 +144%
Robinhood larger than Coinbase before 2026? Aug 14 $135 +$165 +122%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30? Jun 02 $20 +$8 +39%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-05-05? Jun 02 $28 +$22 +82%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Jun 02 $40 +$70 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down in April? May 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 05 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,250 by January 31? May 05 $903 −$903 -100%
Blues vs. Jets May 05 $32 +$18 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 28? May 05 $40 +$26 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Jan 06 $902 +$1 +0%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 28 $154 +$46 +30%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 27 $237 +$62 +26%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Dec 26 $396 +$7 +2%
OpenSea token >1 billion a week after launch? Dec 10 $147 +$30 +20%
Solana all time high in Q4? Nov 26 $330 +$270 +82%
100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? Nov 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states? Nov 12 $300 +$49 +16%
Will Manchester City beat Newcastle? Oct 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? Oct 02 $241 +$59 +24%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Sep 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Sep 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September? Aug 25 $426 $0 -0%
Kamala Harris replaced as nominee at DNC? Aug 23 $425 $0 +0%
Will another country win Gold in Men's Basketball? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $563 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 5¢ $514 3h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $604 19d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $31 19d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $500 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $134 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $91 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 70¢ $2,676 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 70¢ $700 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 70¢ $140 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 70¢ $131 20d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 35¢ $3,990 61d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 62d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 38¢ $150 62d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 38¢ $362 63d
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $270 63d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,000 63d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $71 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $43 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $1 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $192 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $66 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $2,327 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $296 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $11 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $100 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $28 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $11 65d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 71¢ $4 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,419.09 · official $6,422.20 (match) · 346 history records