Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79ba…62ce sports 344 markets active 1h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%28W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$27
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$18
sports 29% −$11
other 26% −$20
economics 4% +$2
crypto 4% −$7
culture 2% −$4
tech 1% −$5
world 1% $0
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 71 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 79 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
all 343 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses28 / 315
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)343 / 344
History coverage654d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $45 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $156 −$2 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $58 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 13 $120 −$3 -3%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $59 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $248 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $107 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $143 −$2 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 07 $54 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $56 −$3 -6%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $251 −$3 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $45 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 02 $60 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $301 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $107 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 43m
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $43 7h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 8h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 12h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 12h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 19h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $49 20h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $48 28h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 28h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 34h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 91¢ $61 35h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $16 40h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $46 40h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $62 40h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $62 44h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $51 45h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $41 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $58 2d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $59 3d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $62 3d
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $63 3d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 3d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.88 · official $45.88 (match) · 1383 history records