Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

79 0x79ba…0899 crypto 17 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$54 (+13%) realized +$57 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day5.9pace

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+20.7%	+9.2%	67%	67%	+0.6%
≤30d	15	+20.7%	+9.2%	67%	67%	+0.6%
≤90d	15	+20.7%	+9.2%	67%	67%	+0.6%
all	15	+20.7%	+9.2%	67%	67%	+0.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.2%	67%	+0.6%
10%	-1.3%	60%	-9.0%
15%	-10.8%	53%	-17.8%
20%	-19.6%	33%	-25.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late +22% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.43 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$57

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage4d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day5.9

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$33	$30	−$3 (-8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	65¢	62¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 22	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$15	+56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 22	$10	+$3	+32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$25	+$15	+60%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$15	+$40	+262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$8	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 20	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?	Jun 19	$52	+$19	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 18	$11	+$11	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 18	$53	−$7	-14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$5	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$10	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$26	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$40	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$26	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	SELL Up	86¢	$14	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$10	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$10	3d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	27¢	$15	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$15	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$26	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?	SELL Down	55¢	$71	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19?	BUY Down	38¢	$52	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$25	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	SELL Up	7¢	$22	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Up	3¢	$11	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$27	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Up	38¢	$45	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$26	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	SELL Down	70¢	$31	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$26	5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$34	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.67 · official $49.67 (match) · 39 history records