Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x79bc…68b3 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$29
politics 19% −$7
economics 4% −$2
tech 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
sports 1% +$70
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +4.0% -5.9% 13% 9% -9.4%
all 105 +4.0% -5.9% 13% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 9% -9.4%
10% -14.9% 9% -18.1%
15% -23.2% 7% -26.0%
20% -30.7% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage92d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $186 $186 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 01 $118 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $105 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 17 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $298 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $305 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,182 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $306 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $308 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $309 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $292 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $303 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $316 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 01 $320 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $306 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $317 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $315 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 25 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $541 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 17 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $639 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $55 6h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $35 14h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $186 23h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $35 35h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $41 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $41 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 11d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 13d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $68 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $68 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $68 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 17d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.60 · official $185.60 (match) · 326 history records