Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79c1…1506 crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-10%) realized −$56 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$71
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$80
other 19% −$4
sports 13% −$18
politics 5% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -14.3% -22.4% 44% 44% -28.8%
≤30d 41 -14.3% -22.4% 44% 44% -28.8%
≤90d 41 -14.3% -22.4% 44% 44% -28.8%
all 80 -15.2% -23.3% 44% 40% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 40% -25.2%
10% -30.6% 38% -32.3%
15% -37.3% 31% -38.9%
20% -43.5% 21% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage246d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 +$4 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$26 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -88%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 +$3 +86%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +65%
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 +$2 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $2 +$3 +165%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 +$1 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $8 +$5 +65%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 +$1 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 3? Nov 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Nov 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Nov 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Nov 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Nov 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 5h
Senegal to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 5h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 47¢ $1 6h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Iraq 23¢ $1 6h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.55 · official $10.55 (match) · 184 history records