Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x79c2…36cc crypto 604 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,956 (+11%) realized +$1,969 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%228W / 368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,288
7 days+$1,288
14 days+$1,288
30 days+$1,349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$528
other 9% −$445
sports 4% +$1,543
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +291.2% +253.9% 100% 100% +253.9%
≤30d 51 +9.5% -1.0% 37% 37% +21.1%
≤90d 161 +44.5% +30.8% 50% 49% +17.2%
all 596 +7.5% -2.8% 38% 37% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 37% -0.3%
10% -12.1% 36% -9.9%
15% -20.6% 34% -18.6%
20% -28.4% 32% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$23 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,690
Realized+$1,969
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses228 / 368
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)596 / 604
History coverage117d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $250 $253 +$3 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $203 $201 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $442 +$1,288 +291%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$44 +208%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$35 +165%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $72 +$127 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$104 +200%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $79 −$55 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$7 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$1 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$59 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $54 +$169 +316%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $112 −$59 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$82 +276%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $49 −$25 -51%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$25 -80%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$13 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$21 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$20 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $24 −$23 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $28 +$26 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $47 −$18 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 30 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 30 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $144 +$129 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $132 −$125 -95%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $254 +$256 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 30 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 30 $316 +$252 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $144 +$101 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $448 −$437 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $51 +$28 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $205 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $255 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $254 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $254 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $254 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $254 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 12h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $440 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $20 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $20 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $23 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $45 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $26 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $16 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,689.80 · official $1,689.80 (match) · 1739 history records