Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x79c5…fffe crypto 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,642 (-10%) realized −$3,624 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%44W / 281L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$10,100
other 1% −$22
world 1% −$170
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-65.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.1% -16.8% 0% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 1 -8.1% -16.8% 0% 0% -16.8%
≤90d 1 -8.1% -16.8% 0% 0% -16.8%
all 325 -61.5% -65.2% 14% 13% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.2% 13% -48.0%
10% -68.5% 12% -53.0%
15% -71.6% 11% -57.5%
20% -74.3% 10% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -65% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$55 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$463
Realized−$3,624
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses44 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)325 / 327
History coverage113d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $289 $392 +$102 (+35%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $192 $71 −$121 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 247 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$8 -8%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 01 $51 −$37 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 01 $20 +$15 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 01 $40 −$30 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 01 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 01 $40 −$22 -54%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 01 $37 −$27 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 01 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$48 +480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 01 $80 −$40 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 01 $180 −$79 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 01 $40 −$30 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 01 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$25 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $94 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $94 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $293 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $48 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $8 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 108d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 1? BUY No 3¢ $1 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $462.86 · official $462.86 (match) · 1143 history records