Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
79 0x79c6…9fbd world 32 markets active 11h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$7
other 41% +$8
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 64% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 0% -8.1%
all 32 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 6% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 6% -8.1%
10% -17.3% 3% -16.9%
15% -25.3% 0% -24.9%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.44 per $1 lost it wins $7.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage250d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $36 +$2 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $32 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $4 $0 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 14 $9 $0 +4%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 14 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $25 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $12 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $36 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 40h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $28 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $22 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $34 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $34 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $26 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $8 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $3 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $24 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $7 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $25 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 69¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records