Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

79 0x79c6…337c world 21 markets active 4d ago coverage 154d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$81 (+0%) realized +$96 · open −$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate35%7W / 13L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,126per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$405

14 days−$405

30 days−$405

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-18.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-33.5%	-39.9%	14%	14%	-51.1%
≤30d	7	-33.5%	-39.9%	14%	14%	-51.1%
≤90d	7	-33.5%	-39.9%	14%	14%	-51.1%
all	20	-9.8%	-18.4%	35%	30%	-9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.4%	30%	-9.2%
10%	-26.2%	25%	-17.9%
15%	-33.3%	15%	-25.8%
20%	-39.8%	15%	-33.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -46% too few recent

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,100) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +14% → late -34% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$426 vs −$223 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized+$96

Unrealized−$15

Win rate (resolved)35%

Wins / losses7 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage154d

Avg bet$1,126

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$80	$65	−$15 (-18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 15	$37	−$37	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 15	$335	−$325	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 15	$107	−$107	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$102	+$374	+365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 14	$105	−$105	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 14	$203	−$200	-99%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main	Mar 16	$496	−$496	-100%
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Mar 16	$591	−$95	-16%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Mar 10	$200	+$24	+12%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Mar 08	$300	+$67	+22%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	Feb 28	$10,896	+$675	+6%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca	Feb 28	$100	−$100	-100%
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?	Feb 28	$1,346	+$1,383	+103%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Feb 27	$1,346	$0	-0%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Feb 27	$1,100	+$246	+22%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Feb 26	$200	−$29	-14%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Feb 26	$5,000	−$403	-8%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight,	Feb 22	$100	+$212	+212%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Jan 11	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$5	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$26	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$27	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$102	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$103	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	4¢	$60	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$46	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$82	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$105	4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$203	4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	21¢	$102	4d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main	BUY Lerone Murphy	34¢	$496	94d
Iran leadership change by April 30?	SELL Yes	39¢	$496	94d
Iran leadership change by April 30?	BUY Yes	46¢	$591	101d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	20¢	$224	101d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	SELL Yes	69¢	$367	102d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	BUY Yes	56¢	$300	106d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	18¢	$200	106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	96¢	$6,226	110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	83¢	$5,396	110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	69¢	$5,345	110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	75¢	$5,000	110d
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca	BUY Vera	29¢	$100	110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	49¢	$500	110d
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?	SELL Yes	95¢	$2,730	110d
US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?	BUY Yes	47¢	$1,346	111d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	SELL No	81¢	$1,346	111d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.39 · official $65.39 (match) · 56 history records