Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79c7…7a48 politics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
economics 17% −$1
sports 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
world 8% $0
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage91d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $99 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 98¢ $96 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $97 12h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 5d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $97 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $97 21d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $97 29d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $97 30d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 35d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 36d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $97 40d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $98 41d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $99 65d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $99 65d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $99 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $99 66d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $99 71d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 72d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 80d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 81d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 81d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 90d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records