Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:37:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x79c7…78a6 politics 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,382 (-11%) realized −$925 · open −$1,457
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate71%85W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$6,391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$2,572
tech 13% +$166
other 6% −$428
world 6% +$106
sports 5% −$54
crypto 3% −$164
culture 1% +$50
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 18 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 28% -29.7%
all 120 -1.5% -10.9% 71% 31% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 31% -19.4%
10% -19.4% 18% -27.1%
15% -27.2% 14% -34.2%
20% -34.3% 12% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$95 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$6,391
Realized−$925
Unrealized−$1,457
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses85 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage182d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $7,848 $6,391 −$1,457 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $391 +$54 +14%
Will Samsunspor vs. Göztepe SK end in a draw? May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw? May 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Will SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 13 $5 +$13 +260%
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? May 03 $10 +$23 +216%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? May 03 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Gençlerbirliği SK end in a draw? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 27 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 01 $54 −$52 -97%
Will Trump or Melania say "Chicago" at Chicago Opening Night? Apr 01 $487 −$427 -88%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Mar 28 $356 +$14 +4%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Mar 28 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Mar 26 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Melania's remarks not air? Mar 24 $153 +$5 +3%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Mar 24 $153 +$3 +2%
Will Trump say "Cure to Cancer" this week? (March 22) Mar 23 $47 +$7 +16%
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15) Mar 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference? Mar 18 $413 +$49 +12%
Will JD Vance's remarks not air? Mar 18 $12 $0 +3%
Will Starmer say "Churchill" during the next Prime Minister's Question Mar 18 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Jensen Huang's remarks not air? Mar 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars? Mar 16 $289 +$50 +17%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Miami address? Mar 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6? Mar 10 $326 −$297 -91%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Miami address? Mar 10 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Trump say "Black Plastic" this week? (March 8) Mar 09 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" this week? (March 8) Mar 09 $24 +$16 +67%
Will Trump say "Autopen" this week? (March 8) Mar 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "El Salvador" this week? (March 8) Mar 09 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Hillary say "Dress" during her Epstein testimony? Mar 07 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) Mar 07 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 5+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on March Mar 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Hockey" during the next White House Press Briefing? Mar 05 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Trump say "Auto" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 04 $3 +$3 +89%
Will Trump say "France" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Mar 04 $63 +$17 +27%
Will Trump say "Whole Dictionary" this week? (March 1) Mar 02 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Fight Fight Fight" this week? (March 1) Mar 02 $69 +$6 +9%
Will Trump say "Italy" or "Italian" this week? (March 1) Mar 02 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Trump say "Fleet" this week? (March 1) Mar 02 $136 +$34 +25%
Will Trump say "Deadlock" in February? Mar 01 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Trump say "Nutjob" in February? Mar 01 $12 +$1 +6%
Khamenei seen in public by March 14? Mar 01 $73 +$5 +6%
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $240 +$11 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $115 +$10 +8%
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Feb 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27? Feb 27 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Question Feb 26 $116 +$11 +10%
Will Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $232 +$174 +75%
Will Trump say "Arizona" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $201 +$86 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $40 1h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $202 2h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $121 3h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $7 27h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $67 27h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $79 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $83 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $183 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $55 6d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $91 6d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $23 15d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $183 15d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $45 15d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $45 15d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $45 15d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $46 16d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $44 17d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $44 17d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $131 17d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $85 17d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $218 17d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $215 18d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $78 19d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $11 19d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $30 19d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $4 19d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $9 20d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,391.01 · official $6,391.01 (match) · 893 history records